IATA is maintaining a positive air cargo forecast and has stressed the majority of global trade is currently unaffected by the latest emerging tariff war. The US only accounts for 13% of global imports and potentially redirected trade flows as a result of tariffs could create new markets, pointed out IATA’s senior economist policy analysis Maja Marciniak, during the IATA World Cargo Symposium (WCS). Speaking during the Sustainability and Economic Outlook session, Marciniak said: “87% of global trade is unaffected by tariffs. There are opportunities for new markets.” Highlighting the scope of this opportunity, Marciniak said: “72.5m tonnes of freight are forecast to be handled by air in 2025.” Looking at the current air cargo landscape, she said air cargo has slowed down in recent months, but this is not an alarming change. “There has been some slowing down in the last few months, although a lot of that is related to seasonality and the slowing down of activity following the Christmas period. “Of course, we also see a big drop in the actual values for February, but that is also very much dependant on the fact that February is a shorter month so that’s not something we should focus on too much.” Positive economic signs There are some key positive economic indicators for air cargo, added Marciniak. While there are large regional variations in economic growth, Asia and developing markets are leading GDP growth, supported by verticals such as e-commerce. Plus, globalisation has increased cross-regional demand, upping the distances that air cargo shipments need to travel. However, major risks to air cargo growth include geopolitical tensions and a global trade war and these risks are higher than what they were six months ago, emphasised Marciniak. Uncertainty has resulted in businesses becoming more cautious and slowing down their activities and there will likely be some direct impacts of tariffs on air cargo, she said. Marciniak added: “The air cargo industry will definitely see some direct impacts.” These could include a reduction in trade flows due to price increases, changes to trade flows, customs processing delays, or an increase in aircraft prices that impacts financial performance.